●China is reacting sensitively to U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in 2022 and threatening Taiwan through Chinese military training. There should not be a war, but the world is worried about the escalating threat from China to Taiwan. So Is China really making such a military threat simply because of the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives' visit to Taiwan?
● China's Real Estate & Local Banks Economic Crisis
As you may recall, in 2021, China's largest real estate company, Henda Group, threatened the Chinese economy in connection with the bankruptcy.
The reason 'Henda' is a problem is that if 'Henda' goes bankrupt, the banks that lent to the company go bankrupt, and if the bank fails, the depositors who deposited in the bank become financially difficult.
In addition, China's economic growth is dominated by the real estate construction economy. If China's real estate economy collapses, China's economy is bound to be greatly reeling.
In China, local banks often finance locally. The problem is that China's local banks have made a lot of loans related to real estate, in order to make a lot of profit from real estate. And among them were bad debts.
At a time when China's economic growth was going up significantly, it didn't matter if China's local banks borrowed a lot in relation to real estate.
However, China's 2020 COVID-19 crisis has created problems with its economic growth.
A crisis has come to the real estate sector, which we believed would continue to grow since 2000.
As the real estate economy deteriorated, companies that did business in real estate went bankrupt, and the banks that lent to those companies also had problems.
There is a problem with the bank, a bank run occurs, and people hide it in the house because it is difficult to entrust the money, and reduce consumption. As consumption declines, economic growth is bound to stagnate.
There are 5 local banks in China's city of Zhengzhou, and as they went bankrupt, depositors' money went to zero.
This has sparked protests, and the Chinese government is solving most of its internal problems in violent ways. It uses force to suppress peaceful protesters, and seemingly China's "Xi Jinping" government is propaganding that there is no problem.
● Turning China's internal problems to the outside (Taiwan threat)
Then, in 2022, an incident occurred in the United States that touched China's Achilles heel.
This is where the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited Taiwan amid a backlash from China.
She said that the justification for her visit to Taiwan was to keep the current situation peaceful.
But China can't believe what she's saying.
So far, the United States has maintained the ambiguity of "one China, " and this time the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, through his visit to Taiwan, effectively recognizes Taiwan as a nation and considers it to interfere with the armed occupation of Taiwan, China's host country.
China secured the justification for large-scale military exercises through the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives' visit to Taiwan, and through this, succeeded in turning China's internal problems to the outside.
Xi's government was able to secure the support of the Chinese people through strong Chinese military exercises in the U.S. intervention in the Taiwan issue.
● What the despotic states have in common
The characteristics of despotic countries, including China, have weak political legitimacy.
Because in democracies like South Korea and the United States, leaders are elected through referendums.
Then the legitimacy is strong. But despotic countries like China, which only hold formal referendums, have little legitimacy.
So the despotic states try to secure the support of the people through economic growth.
But when they find it difficult to grow the economy anymore, they use tactics that turn internal problems to the outside.
In the past, the Nazis in Germany, militarism in Japan, and fascism in Italy turned internal problems into wars and outwards.
Therefore, the world must prevent China from thinking about war.
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